Intresting read and Observation By Gary Marcus

Some Excerpt:  from:

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus

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For good measure, in May 2022, on the very day this blog was conceived (and indeed the impetus for conceiving it), a DeepMind executive declared that AGI had basically been solved:

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But here we are 20 months later and in some core sense not a lot has changed; hallucinations are still rampant, large language models still make a lot of ridiculous errors and so forth.

But you know what has changed? The hubris of Spring of 2022 has to some small but detectable extent diminishing. GPT-4 (introduced in the intervening period) is surely better, but people have little by little started to recognize that scoring better on benchmarks is NOT the same as making foundational progress.

Yann LeCun was one of the first of the big tech leaders to switch from cheerleader to skeptic:

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But Yann’s just an employee of Mark Zuckerberg, with a model (Galactica) that got trounced by OpenAI’s ChatGPT; some have dismissed his reorientation as sour grapes. And this song is not really about him.

Because the interesting thing is that others are also changing sides. Rarlier this month, Bill Gates, who not that long said that GPT-4 was a revolution, recently that he did not expect GPT-5 to be that much better than GPT-4. Coming from Gates, this is a big deal, since Gates probably has access to drafts of GPT-5, given that he still owns a lot of Microsoft which owns a lot of OpenAI.

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I will confess that I found all of this to be more than a little bit vindicating; I am human after all.

But the sweetest vindication of all came just now, November 16, 2023, from Sam Altman, now gone full Marcus. Here’s a transcript excerpt from a talk he just gave in Cambridge:

Translation: Deep learning is hitting a wall

Exactly. I couldn’t have said it better.

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The sooner we stop climbing the hill we are on, and start looking for new paradigms, the better.

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source: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/has-sam-altman-gone-full-gary-marcus